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| Registros recuperados: 31 | |
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| Negassa, Asfaw; Myers, Robert J.; Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z.. |
| This paper discusses a modeling approach that extends and improves the standard parity bounds model (PBM) of spatial market efficiency by analyzing the dynamic effects of marketing policy changes. The model facilitates an improved understanding of the patterns of adjustment in grain marketing efficiency in response to policy changes in two main ways. First, it identifies whether there are statistically significant structural changes in trading regime probabilities as a result of a given marketing policy change. Second, it determines the time path of the response of spatial grain market efficiency to marketing policy changes, thus addressing the issue of how long will it take before the full effect of marketing policy change is realized on spatial grain... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16132 |
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| Nyambane, Gerald G.; Hanson, Steven D.; Myers, Robert J.; Black, J. Roy. |
| The vast majority of previous studies on farmers' optimal risk management behavior have used static models and on the most part ignored use of borrowing and lending as an alternative method of managing risk In this paper we develop a stylized multi-period risk management model for a risk averse farmer who can use revenue insurance to manage risk and also borrow and lend subject to a credit constraint. The model is applied to an example farm from Adair County in Iowa and the results provide three important messages. First, contrary to the full coverage of actuarially fair insurance result expected from using purely static analysis, at low revenues, insurance coverage may not be taken in the absence of debt. Second, if debt is available, full coverage will... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19072 |
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| Myers, Robert J.; Piggott, Roley R.; Tomek, William G.. |
| Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1990 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22357 |
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| Negassa, Asfaw; Myers, Robert J.; Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z.. |
| In the context of on-going market reform in developing countries, there is a need for an improvement in the existing methods of spatial market efficiency analysis in order to better inform the debate toward designing and implementing new grain marketing policies, institutions, and infrastructure that facilitate the emergence of a well developed and competitive grain marketing system. The standard parity bounds model (PBM), while it overcomes many weaknesses of the conventional methods of spatial market efficiency analysis, it does not allow for the test of structural changes in spatial market efficiency as a result of policy changes. In this paper, building on the standard PBM, we develop an extended parity bounds model (EPBM). The EPBM is a stochastic... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16133 |
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| Hanson, Steven D.; Myers, Robert J.; Hilker, James H.. |
| Many agricultural producers face cash price distributions that are effectively truncated at a lower limit through participation in farm programs designed to support farm prices and incomes. For example, the 1996 Federal Agricultural Improvement Act (FAIR) makes many producers eligible to obtain marketing loans which truncate their cash price realization at the loan rate, while allowing market prices to freely equilibrate supply and demand. This paper studies the effects of truncated cash price distributions on the optimal use of futures and options. The results show that truncation in the cash price distribution facing an individual producer provides incentives to trade options as well as futures. We derive optimal futures and options trading rules under... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm programs; Futures; Hedging; Options; Truncation; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15152 |
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| Mason, Nicole M.; Chapoto, Antony; Jayne, Thomas S.; Myers, Robert J.. |
| Since the southern African food crisis of 2001/02, the ‘new-variant famine’ (NVF) hypothesis first proposed by de Waal and Whiteside (2003) has become an important part of the conventional wisdom surrounding the relationship between HIV/AIDS and food crises in the region. The NVF hypothesis suggests that HIV/AIDS is eroding agrarian livelihoods and exacerbating the effects of drought and other shocks on agrarian communities. These concepts have begun to shape the HIV/AIDS mitigation and food security policies and programs of governments and development agencies. To date, however, there is a dearth of empirical evidence to support the NVF hypothesis, and there have been no studies specifically designed to tests its predictions. |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Food security; Policy; Zambia; Africa; HIV/AIDS; Crop Production/Industries; Health Economics and Policy; Q18. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54489 |
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| Mason, Nicole M.; Chapoto, Antony; Jayne, Thomas S.; Myers, Robert J.. |
| 1. Consistent with the New Variant Famine (NVF) hypothesis, the negative impact of drought on crop output and output per hectare is further exacerbated where HIV prevalence rates are relatively high, particularly in the low- and medium rainfall zones of the country (agro-ecological regions I and II). 2. HIV prevalence rates and AIDS-related mortality rates in Zambia are highest in the lowest rainfall and most drought-prone zone of the country (agro-ecological region I). 3. Only for districts in agro-ecological region I do we find evidence of a robust negative effect of HIV/AIDS on agrarian livelihood indicators. Relatively stable food production zones and/or areas with relatively low HIV prevalence rates appear to be less vulnerable to the adverse effects... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Food security; Food policy; Zambia; HIV/AIDS; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Q20. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54629 |
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| Myers, Robert J.; Liu, Yanyan; Hanson, Steven D.. |
| We argue that existing agricultural insurance valuation models are limited either because they are not complete equilibrium models that price the non-diversifiable risk involved in issuing insurance contracts, or they assume complete markets which appears at odds with most applications of agricultural insurance. We also propose two new incomplete market models and derive an insurance valuation formula for each under the assumption of constant relative risk aversion preferences and lognormally distributed random variables. The two models differ in the way they treat trade in insurance contracts, with one model allowing insurers and insureds to trade freely on a liquid secondary market, while the other requires insurance firms to act as brokers between... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19561 |
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| Lai, Jing-Yi; Myers, Robert J.; Hanson, Steven D.. |
| Most previous research on post-harvest grain storage by farmers has assumed risk-neutral behavior and/or made restrictive assumptions about underlying price probability distributions. In this study, we solve the optimal on-farm storage problem for a risk-averse farmer under more general assumptions about underlying price distributions. The resulting model is applied to Michigan corn farmers and findings show, contrary to the "sell all or nothing" risk-neutral rule, risk-averse farmers will spread sales out over the storage season. As farmers become more risk averse, the optimal strategy is to sell more grain at harvest and spread sales over the storage season, even though this practice reduces expected return. This result is more consistent with observed... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Grain storage; Risk aversion; Stochastic dynamic programming; Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31063 |
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| Lai, Jing-Yi; Myers, Robert J.; Hanson, Steven D.. |
| Most previous research on post-harvest grain storage by farmers has assumed risk-neutral behavior and/or made restrictive assumptions about underlying price probability distributions. In this study we solve the optimal post-harvest storage problem for a risk averse farmer under more general assumptions about underlying price distributions. The resulting model is applied to Michigan corn farmers and results show that, contrary to the sell all-or-nothing risk-neutral rule, risk averse farmers will spread sales out over the storage season. The optimal pattern for sales by Michigan corn farmers is to sell approximately 50% of corn at harvest in November (a risk-reduction strategy) and approximately 40% in May (a return-enhancing strategy). |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11739 |
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| Jayne, Thomas S.; Mason, Nicole M.; Myers, Robert J.; Ferris, John N.; Mather, David; Beaver, Margaret; Lenski, Natalie; Chapoto, Antony; Boughton, Duncan. |
| Accurate information on farmer and consumer behavior is the foundation for Identifying public investments and policies that can effectively promote national food security and income growth objectives. This report synthesizes recent findings on smallholder crop marketing behavior and urban consumption patterns in Eastern and Southern Africa, and their implications for public sector investments and policies to promote smallholder incomes and national food security. |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Food security; Africa; Smallholder markets; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Crop Production/Industries; International Development; Marketing; Q14; Q13; Q12; Q11. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62148 |
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| Myers, Robert J.; Jayne, Thomas S.. |
| An alternative specification for the trend component of crop yield growth is developed and applied to maize yield data for Zimbabwe’s large‐scale farming sector. This accounts for permanent regime shifts as new technologies are discovered but allows gradual absorption as adoption follows a diffusion path. Econometric methods are used to estimate the timing and importance of innovations, as well as the length of the diffusion path. Results from an application to Zimbabwe commercial maize yields indicate two major regime shifts that can be associated with the introduction of hybrid seed varieties, and a diffusion path that extends over a decade. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1997 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118043 |
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| Registros recuperados: 31 | |
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